It can be seen that in the three bull markets in the history of 2007, 2009 and 20 15 years, the PE of CSI 500 rose and fell regularly, reaching more than 80 positions. According to the historical law, when the next big bull market comes, PE is likely to rise to the previous high point, so we can set three profit-taking standards: when the market rises to 70 and 70 PE respectively,
At present, PE=80 is the best take profit point. PE=70 take profit, it is too early to withdraw from the market, and the income is not even as good as profit. However, PE=90 will miss two bull market highs because the standard is too high, and the income is not satisfactory.
Therefore, if you want to choose a suitable valuation take profit point, you need to know the fluctuation range of the historical valuation of the index. In the fluctuating market, the valuation has periodic laws, but are all the index valuations regular? Let's keep watching!
Obviously, although the PE of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index still follows the market and shows cyclical ups and downs, the peak value of PE gradually decreases, from about 50 to about 20. Applying valuation and profit-taking method to this kind of index is likely to fail! Let's measure it!
It can be seen that the highest income can be obtained when PE=20, that is to say, if the PE of the third bull market can't be predicted to drop to about 20, if the take profit point is set according to the fluctuation range of PE of the previous two bull markets, not only will the income of 1.5% be missed, but it is better to make a fixed investment without the take profit point!
The valuation take profit method has limitations, so investors should choose carefully!
Limit one
Valuation profit method does not apply to all indexes. To be exact, only when the valuation indicators (PE, PB, etc. ) has obvious cyclical law, bull market valuation is predictable, and whether the valuation profit method can play the biggest role.
Limit 2
P/E ratio PE is affected by price P and EPS, so when EPS rises above P, the overall valuation will decline. In the above example, the PE of 20 15 in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 bull market is only about 19, which is because the profit growth rate of index companies is higher than the overall judgment of the market. Therefore, it is difficult to determine the profit point of valuation, which requires comprehensive consideration of the company's future operating conditions, industry growth space and other factors.
For example, CSI 100, CSI 800 and GEM index, the bull market valuation is not as easy to predict as CSI 500, so it is not suitable for the valuation take profit method.