If you buy a fund and keep it for one year, what will be the final return?

In fact, this question is very difficult to answer. First of all, there are many types of funds, and the risk-return characteristics of different funds are very different. Even for the same type of funds, the performance of excellent funds and poor performance funds is very different. Then, if you hold a fund in a bull market year and a bear market year, the income difference is huge, but we can add some restrictions to analyze this problem from the perspective of probability. For example, at any time node, if you buy a partial stock fund index and hold it for one year, the probability of profit is too high. What are the highest and lowest returns?

from the historical data, we take the market from 28 to the present (which has undergone several rounds of bull and bear market conversion) as a reference, and make a model calculation. From 28 to the present, we will buy the partial stock fund index on any day and hold it for one year.

The data shows that the highest index return of partial stock funds can reach 151.49%, while the worst one is a loss of 53.18%.

it can be seen that the uncertainty of income is very high in the case of short holding period.

However, if we hold the investment for a long time, the overall investment income will begin to become regular. We can find that with the increase of holding time, the profit and loss of partial stock fund index are gradually decreasing. When the holding time reaches 8 years, the maximum loss is only .79% and the maximum profit is 15.28%.

There is a strong uncertainty about the short-term investment income. It is hard to say that the high income of the fund in the past two years can be replicated in the next year. If you want to get an ideal return, it is best to set the investment cycle for more than three years, and with the increase of investment time, the probability of making money will increase. .