The Era of Economic Barometer Failure
Back ten years ago, or even longer, the market was full of opinions. Although the economy is growing, the stock market may not keep rising. The stock market is no longer a "barometer" of the economy, mainly depending on the level of liquidity. The facts are sometimes true. From 1 1 to 13, 16 to 18, the economy (GDP) grew well, but the stock market as a whole was still under pressure and kept falling. During this period, many old investors have a deep memory. Only by making some small tickets speculatively can we get excess returns and hit the Universiade.
There may be many complicated reasons behind this correlation between the stock market and economic growth, but we are still trying to find the deep-seated main reasons behind it in order to better judge the future situation. If A shares are compared to a listed company, the reason for the continuous decline in past performance growth is mainly the decline in valuation. This is mainly due to concerns about the business model of listed companies, because most of the profit growth momentum of these companies comes from leveraged arbitrage at low interest rates.
To name a few of the most dazzling stars, LeTV, Huaxia Happiness and Sanju Environmental Protection, these big bull stocks that shine like meteors are not fancy or leveraged. LeTV invented the "ecological closed loop", Huaxia Happiness created the "park new city" and Sanju Environmental Protection began its "off-balance-sheet expansion". However, this leverage model is unsustainable, and whether there is a core profit model will soon be verified.
The pain of reform is also real pain.
In order to change this bloated leverage model, the government has been promoting systematic reforms. Financial deleveraging took place in 20 13, supply-side reform was proposed in 20 15, and deleveraging took place in 17 and 18, and the stock market was in the process of wave after wave. But in the previous process, why didn't the effect be clearly reflected in the stock market and a comprehensive "performance bull" was not formed?
The reason is that Ai Zhijun thought that the reform was not thorough and was kidnapped by the goal of GDP centralism. As we all know, since the reform and opening up, GDP has maintained rapid growth for many years, behind which is to stabilize the overall situation and ensure employment. Therefore, in order to maintain GDP, we have to maintain a high M2, requiring banks to increase credit supply and maintain a certain amount of social financing. However, due to the factors of industrial structure, a lot of money still flows to local platforms, excess capacity, and even some "capital addicts" who should have been eliminated long ago, that is, enterprises that rely on borrowing new ones to return old ones. Therefore, the deleveraging in those years was actually timid and hesitant. On the one hand, I want to cut the cake, but I am afraid that everyone will knock over the whole table.
In recent years, with the acceleration of population aging, the decrease of employed population, the enhancement of the ability of the tertiary industry to absorb employment and other objective factors. Our dependence on GDP has declined, and some scholars even proposed to cancel the GDP growth index. This big change actually removes the "curse" of deleveraging and market-oriented reform. You can roll up your sleeves and do a big job.
Of course, reform is painful. Although it is pain, the pain is really pain. In the process of market-oriented reform of deleveraging interest rate, flood irrigation stopped and funds became scarce, which was followed by the phased increase of risk-free interest rate and financing interest rate. During this period, the market was filled with all kinds of previously unimaginable pictures, especially the vivid speech about "bloodletting surgery", the scene that He, the founder of the once-beautiful Oriental Garden, ran to the office of Hongqi, the chairman of Minsheng Bank, and the establishment and withdrawal of private enterprise rescue funds. But these memories are slowly becoming history. There are still some memories that history will not remember.
The power of supply-side reform
If it weren't for the release of epidemic and liquidity, perhaps this unstoppable historical process would come faster.
After the supply-side reform of traditional industries, the backward production capacity was eliminated, the investment that should be stopped was suppressed, the financing expansion rate slowed down, and the interest rate level also came down. The profitability of leading enterprises has been greatly improved, and the level of return on net assets and ROIC, which are more related to costs, has been systematically improved. This is a phenomenon that we have seen in the capital market in the past year, but behind it is round after round of deleveraging, the result of system reform again and again, and the accompanying pain. But only after A-share listed companies achieve high-quality growth can investors get real returns.
For a long time in the future, we may see the failure of the "economic barometer" and the slowdown of economic growth, but the overall rate of return on stock market investment has increased. The promotion of reform has changed the structure of economic growth, improved the quality of economic growth, promoted the transformation of the mode of listed companies, and improved the quality and confidence of investors themselves. This year may be the real first year of this change.
Tracing back to the source and grasping the essence of investment
Finally, according to this logic, Ai Zhijun braved the face to predict the market trend this year. Macroscopically, we are likely to copy the trend of India's 20 13. In 20 13, India experienced high inflation and tight liquidity. However, due to the realization of corporate ROE, the stock market is still strong and hit a new high.
At the micro-stock level, citing the viewpoint of TF Securities, the core of the excess return of growth stocks with real performance explosion is not the change of macro-environment (interest rate, inflation, liquidity), but mainly depends on whether their own prosperity can continue to erupt. After 15 data back-testing, a quantitative conclusion is drawn, that is, companies with non-growth rate exceeding 30% will have excess returns next year, but it has little to do with buying valuation.
As an A-share investor, investment is actually very difficult. We must understand what money we are making. What money should be earned at each stage? Is it the money that the liquidity premium causes the valuation to rise, or the money that the performance increases, or the money that is purely stupid in the market? In today's market, we should trace back to the source, grasp the essence of investment, fully embrace the return of performance, grasp the track of high prosperity, choose stocks with cash performance, and don't ignore the accumulated achievements of reform and waste the performance of the Year of the Ox.