Southern Hebei, southeastern Shanxi, southwestern Henan and other places once reached extreme drought. Precipitation occurs once every 30 years in northern winter wheat areas and once every 50 years in extremely dry areas. In order to cope with the drought, China launched the Class I emergency response for the first time, which is the highest emergency response mechanism in the national emergency plan for flood control and drought relief. Departments at all levels and drought-stricken areas in China are making every effort to fight drought and protect grain. Since June 5438+065438+1 October12008, the precipitation in northern winter wheat areas such as Beijing, Tianjin, most of Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, northeastern Hubei, northwestern Shaanxi, Ningxia and eastern Gansu has been 50% to 80% less than normal, while in central Shanxi and Hebei.
According to the agricultural situation of the Ministry of Agriculture, the main wheat producing areas such as Henan, Anhui, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Gansu suffered from drought10.45 million mu, of which 610.7/10,000 mu was seriously affected by drought. The irrigated area of drought-affected wheat fields in 7 provinces is 7 1.89 million mu, accounting for 49.6% of the drought-affected area; Topdressing area is 33.52 million mu, accounting for 23.6438+0% of the drought-affected area.
According to the field investigation, in the main wheat planting areas in summer, drought has been continuously affecting the growth of wheat since June 5438+ 10, 2008.
According to the investigation of Nanyang city in the south of Henan province, there were three precipitation processes in this area from June 5, 2008 to 10. There was a rain before and after wheat sowing in June 5438 +20081October, and there was light rain and snow in this area. After the Spring Festival, there was a small amount of precipitation in some areas on February 2nd and 3rd. From the observation of local wheat growth, the overall growth of wheat sown before precipitation in June 2008 was much better than that sown after precipitation. The seedling situation of late-sown wheat is similar to that of wheat that has just emerged under normal rainfall, and there are still many wheat in the wheat field that have not emerged because of drought. The overall emergence of wheat field is less than normal 10%~20%.
Judging from the local planting structure, the cotton planting area in the south of Nanyang has been increasing in recent years. The local wheat planting area mainly meets its own needs, accounting for 1/3- 1/2 of local crops. The northern plain of Nanyang is mainly planted with wheat, and the proportion of wheat planting is above 80%. Due to the large proportion of local migrant workers (migrant workers account for more than 80% of the rural adult labor force in southern Nanyang, and middle-aged and elderly people are basic farmers in rural areas), the average yield per mu of wheat has not improved, and the continuous drought in recent years after autumn sowing has caused an average yield of less than 800 kg. Some irrigation canals that have been used for a long time in a county in the south are now abandoned due to long-term lack of maintenance.
Under drought conditions, the first major rainfall demand of summer wheat is in 65438+ 10 and 165438+ 10 before and after wheat sowing. The climatic conditions of these two months determine the emergence of wheat in one year, and the influence on the later yield is generally between 10%-20%. However, due to the lack of effective irrigation for several years during the early drought period, the main summer wheat producing areas basically decided to reduce production by 20%. In addition, after the Spring Festival is the second important water demand period of wheat. After the Spring Festival, the main summer wheat producing areas generally began to heat up, and the growth of wheat began to enter a critical period, and the water demand was greater than the previous stage. Wheat growth is entering the second stage, and the temperature is generally high during the Spring Festival. The second key growth period of wheat has started ahead of schedule before the Spring Festival. If the drought can be effectively alleviated now, the trend of wheat yield reduction will stop this year, otherwise the yield reduction will continue to increase.
There will be a small to moderate rain (snow) weather process in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the eastern part of Northwest China, the eastern part of Southwest China, the southern part of North China, the central and western parts of Huanghuai and most parts of Jianghan. Among them, the precipitation in the north of the arid area is below 3 mm, and the precipitation in the south is 5~ 13 mm, which can alleviate the drought in Henan, western Shandong and southwest Anhui, the main wheat producing areas. However, the drought problem in the northern arid areas will continue and it is difficult to be alleviated.
Judging from the yield reduction of drought wheat in the early stage, the yield reduction of wheat should be at least 15%-20%, and the yield reduction of summer wheat planted in the later stage will be even greater. Under the continuous influence of drought, the yield reduction of wheat this summer is expected to be above 20%.
Before the Spring Festival in some parts of southern Henan, the purchase price of ordinary wheat by general traders has reached 0.86 yuan/kg, which is higher than the minimum purchase price of wheat stipulated by the state in 2009. In the case of drought and reduced production, the price of wheat is bound to continue to rise.
In the futures market, Zheng Mai was on the rise around the Spring Festival. Judging from the current production reduction, this round of rising market has not ended. In the short term, there may be a certain adjustment process due to the influence of excessive rise and precipitation, but the overall downward adjustment will not be too great. Taking Mai 0905 contract as an example, it is estimated that the reduction will be no less than 2020 yuan/ton.