Theoretical futures price refers to the theoretical price of commodities contained in futures contracts. The theoretical price of futures is based on the commodity value contained in the contract, which consists of the production cost of commodities, the transaction cost of futures, the circulation cost of commodities and the expected income.

Futures contract is the object of futures trading, which has no value in itself, but is only a certificate of commodity ownership. Because this certificate can be bought and sold, it has its own price. This certificate becomes a kind of securities to some extent, and the trading of futures contracts is based on physical delivery. Therefore, the transaction price of futures contracts can truly reflect the actual spot value of newly traded commodities, that is, the transaction price of futures can reflect the composition and changes of theoretical futures prices. It can be seen that theoretical futures price is the basis of futures trading value, and theoretical futures price determines futures trading value.