Grain is different from industrial products. When the grain trade is affected and becomes tense, it is easy to cause panic, which in turn leads to food protectionism. Food importing countries want to import more food to ensure domestic supply, while food exporting countries raise tariffs or reduce or even suspend exports for self-protection.

Therefore, the global food supply will become tense.

This tendency in the grain market has not been eliminated, and it has also been transmitted to the edible oil market.

Recently, Indonesia announced that it will start the ban on the export of edible oil and palm oil products on April 28th, which means that the export of edible oil and palm oil products in Indonesia will be suspended.

After the news was released, the global edible oil market was once again "fried".

Data show that Indonesia is the world's largest producer of palm oil. Because Indonesia uses palm oil to produce edible oil, it is also the world's largest exporter of vegetable oil.

Data show that by 202 1, the annual output of palm oil in Indonesia is about 45.5 million tons, and the export volume is about 28 million tons.

Therefore, with the announcement of Indonesia's export ban, the global edible oil market fluctuated greatly.

American CBOT soybean oil futures immediately rose more than 3%, reaching an all-time high of 84 cents per pound.

In fact, this is not the first time that Indonesia has disrupted the global market.

At the beginning of this year, the Indonesian government suddenly announced a one-month suspension of coal exports on the grounds of alleviating the coal shortage in Indonesia and the possible power shortage.

Indonesia is the world's largest coal exporter, and the release of this news has also disrupted the global coal market.

However, thanks to the coordination of several key coal enterprises and associations in China, some of them have eased.

The reason why Indonesia suspended the export of edible oil this time is also the shortage of domestic edible oil supply.

However, the indefinite time of the ban is another main reason for the fluctuation of the global oil market.

We have analyzed before that the shortage of supply and demand in the global edible oil market is more severe than that in the global grain market.

1, the supply of the four major vegetable oils in the world is tight.

The four major vegetable oils in the world are soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil, but the supply gap of these four oils is very large at present.

In terms of soybean oil, the global soybean oil price has been fluctuating at a high level due to the reduction of production in major soybean producing countries in South America, the reduction of soybean oil squeezing and production, and the impact of biofuels.

However, due to the weather in Canada, rapeseed production decreased, resulting in a decline in rapeseed oil supply.

On the other hand, Russia and Ukraine are the largest exporters of sunflower oil in the world, and their sunflower oil exports account for nearly 80% of the world's exports, which shows their great influence.

As the largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia has tightened its market supply with the announcement of the export ban.

2. The tight supply problem is difficult to alleviate in a short time.

However, what is more difficult is that these tight supply problems are difficult to alleviate in a short time.

On the one hand, with the persistence of geopolitical conflicts and sanctions, the whole global trade pattern is changing, and its subsequent influence has been sustained and upgraded; On the other hand, with the rise of food protectionism in various countries, vegetable oil has also been affected and trade has become tighter.

3. The price keeps hitting record highs.

In the food price index published by FAO in March, vegetable oil rose the highest, with a month-on-month increase of 23.2%, a record high.

On the other hand, from the global trend, the price of edible oil is more likely to rise and fall, and many factors are conducive to the rise of oil prices, but in the follow-up, it may still become the category with the largest increase.

With the tight supply and demand in the oil market and grain market, protectionism is on the rise, and the risk of global food crisis is increasing, which needs to be closely collected in the future.

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