Agricultural University Futures Training Department 20 18-08-07 23:53:08

China's 5,000-year history, dynastic changes and institutional changes reveal that every success is accompanied by countless failures. Looking around, do you find that there are two kinds of people around you who are willing to express themselves? One is the declarer of victory, and what they hear from them is often a strong background, a proud family background, a successful enterprise and a fascination with money. Another kind of people, when communicating, always recall their own sufferings and tell others how difficult it is to succeed through past failures. Seeing this, who would you rather listen to, Kan Kan?

Investment failure is a normal state.

Every investor wants to succeed, but it is often accompanied by failure. This is the normal state and the iron law. Judging from the number of investments, most of the time investment is wrong, and from the time of investment, most of the time investment is wrong.

Why is investment failure a normal state? We analyze it from two aspects: market and technology:

(1) The error probability of market analysis is high.

In the stock market, it is often said that if securities analysts watch too much, the market may fall, and the national team may run away if they shout in. Stock critics are the reverse indicators of entering the market. The stock market is often born in despair, grows with a grain of salt, develops with an optimistic vision for the future, and is destroyed in madness. It seems that the trend and trend of both stock market and futures are often unexpected, because:

First, no market analysis method can accurately predict the market, as Newton said: "I can predict gravity, but I can't measure human madness." There are two methods to analyze the market: basic factor analysis and technical analysis. The theoretical basis of this writing method will be covered in later articles.

Second, the daily price fluctuation is full of noise, and market analysts can easily get lost in the temptation of information explosion. Short-term price fluctuations, that is, the ups and downs of the market, are not necessarily trend galaxies, but more likely price noise. Due to the diversity of market participants, short-term price fluctuations affect investors' fear and greed, and it is difficult to find them.

(2) The analysis and prediction of the masters are often wrong.

World-famous masters have certain basis and assumptions when analyzing the market. There are always two kinds of emotions in the market, optimism and pessimism. No matter what kind of point of view, there must be a premise. When the premise changes, the result changes. Masters make predictions in the stock and futures markets. Why can't they be 100% correct? Because it is difficult to accurately predict China's future monetary policy, it will also change due to sudden policy orientation.

The investment market needs trial and error.

Be careful to verify and make bold assumptions. After forecasting and analyzing, investors buy or sell according to the trading plan, try and make mistakes in trading, and set the stop loss point according to the plan. 1. Hold positions when the market develops in the expected direction; When the loss occurs, it stops at that point. Many investors will be discouraged because of price fluctuation. Therefore, from the perspective of the number of transactions, most of the transactions entering the market are failures.

I have heard such a passage: "The average annual increase of 50% in the stock market only occurs on 10 days a year. From a statistical point of view, investors only have a sense of accomplishment for 10 days a year, and the remaining 355 days have to suffer and learn to be patient. " It can be seen that investment is a successful thing with a strong heart.