Now that a year has passed, the year-end inventory shows that the situation is unexpected-
The shock did not appear.
Before China joined the WTO, experts and officials generally believed that China had a large population, cheap labor and relatively little land resources. Once China joins the WTO, labor-intensive agricultural products such as fruits, vegetables, flowers and bonsai will be competitive in the international market, and their export volume will increase. And "land-intensive" bulk agricultural products have little advantage, such as wheat and corn. This judgment has almost become * * * knowledge.
But the realistic answer is that this has not happened, on the contrary: the import of land-intensive products has not increased, but decreased; The export volume of labor-intensive products is very limited and the price paid is very high. For example, judging that the quality and safety standards exceed the standard, many phenomena are returned, detained and destroyed.
According to the foreign trade export from June 5,438+0 to June 5,438+0 this year, only corn with a quota of 5.85 million tons 1 10,000 tons, wheat with a quota of 8.47 million tons110,000 tons and cotton with a quota of 820,000 tons120,000 tons were imported. The total agricultural trade reached US$ 22.3 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year, and the trade surplus reached US$ 4.4 billion, up 5 1% year-on-year. The expectation of some WTO members, such as the United States, for China to export a large number of agricultural products has not been realized.
So someone immediately asked: "Is this because of China's trade protection policy?" Actually, the real reason is-
Price plays a decisive role
At the beginning of China's entry into WTO, Ke Bingsheng, the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, once wrote that "China's agriculture will not be greatly impacted". This was a "minority" at that time. Today, many of his original predictions have been confirmed.
According to his analysis, the particularity of this year lies in the reverse change of supply and demand prices in agricultural products markets at home and abroad.
The prices of many agricultural products in the world market have risen sharply. From October to September in 65438/kloc-0, the spot price of wheat in the international market rose by 36%, and the futures price rose by 48%. The reason for the sharp increase in world wheat prices is that the planting area of major exporting countries such as North America has decreased and the drought is serious. It is expected that the United States wheat carry-over inventory will drop to the lowest level in 30 years this year.
The situation of corn and cotton is similar. The spot price of corn rose by 20%, and the futures price rose by 25%. Cotton spot and futures prices rose 12%. Even the futures price of soybean oil, which was fierce not long ago, rose by 47%; Both spot and futures prices of soybeans have increased by 25%.
At the same time, the main domestic agricultural products, such as grain and cotton, are still in oversupply, with low prices and large stocks.
Over the past year, the prices of domestic agricultural products have not increased much, and some have fallen instead of rising.
For example, corn, soybeans and cotton rose by about 10%, and the price of wheat fell by about 3%. The price of wheat is maintained at the level of RMB 1,000 per ton 1 in the producing area and within the range of11/50 yuan in the selling area. In contrast, the price of imported wheat is not only much higher than that of domestic production areas, but also significantly higher than that of domestic sales areas.
In this way, the overall domestic price is falling, while the international price is rising, forming an unexpected pattern.
Ke Bingsheng stressed that the reason why China did not import a large number of grain and cotton products this year is also because since last year, with the further deepening of the reform of the grain and cotton circulation system, the market has actually been liberalized, which has stabilized the domestic market price in China at a relatively low level under the influence of market economic rules, thus making the imported grain and cotton products uncompetitive.
This explains why the import quotas of corn, wheat and cotton are not fixed. If it were not for the above two reasons, there would still be a large number of imports under the existing quota management model.
For example, among the edible vegetable oil prices in the international market, the price of palm oil is obviously lower. Therefore, palm oil quota is most used in tariff quota products in China. During the period of 1- 10, * * imported 14 10000 tons, accounting for nearly 60% of the annual quota of 2.4 million tons.
Similarly, China's regulations on the safety management of genetically modified foods are subjectively based on the need to protect human health and environmental safety, rather than trade protection. Objectively speaking, it has no trade protection function, because in the first trade, the formalities of declaration and registration were only slightly delayed, and there was no substantial trade barrier effect.
In this regard, a strong evidence is the import of soybeans. The import of soybeans is strictly in accordance with the Regulations on the Administration of Genetically Modified Products. Except for the initial delay due to declaration, the import quantity of soybeans has not been affected in general. We imported 87 1 10,000 tons before 10 this year, and imported10.35 million tons in September alone.
Still have to take a long-term view.
Someone warned: "This year is a special year, and we should not be blindly optimistic." . He is Chen Xiwen, a long-term expert on agriculture in China and deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center.
Chen Xiwen believes that it is too early to say that the competition of China's agricultural products in the international market has passed. To some extent, this year is unexpected, but it cannot be used as a long-term judgment of China's agricultural product import and export situation. This is mainly because:
First, it is hard to say whether there will be a long-term surplus of bulk agricultural products in China. If there is a long-term surplus, then the domestic price is of course low; It is also competitive in the international market.
But from the current situation, this may not be the case. Because of the grain output in recent years, the output of that year was lower than the consumption of that year for three consecutive years. If there was no large stock in the past, the price would have gone up long ago. In other words, once the domestic supply and demand are balanced or there is a shortage, the prices of domestic bulk agricultural products may rise, creating opportunities for foreign agricultural products to enter the China market, which is equivalent to reversing the pattern of domestic and foreign markets this year.
Second, most countries in the world have improved the quality and safety standards of imported agricultural products and formed trade protectionism characterized by technical barriers and green barriers. Moreover, this will be a general trend, and the difficulty of China's agricultural products export may be greatly increased.
Therefore, we must avoid blind optimism, see the particularity of the situation this year, and take a long-term view. In fact, our inferior bulk agricultural products still have no advantage in the long run; We believe that labor-intensive agricultural products with advantages may not really form advantages by relying on the low price of a single labor force. We must also attach importance to scientific and technological progress, improve our own quality and strive to reach a higher level. Therefore, we should analyze the situation realistically and evaluate the situation objectively and correctly.
It should be said that China's accession to the WTO has added an international market for China's agricultural products consumption and a means to balance China's agricultural products, especially grain. Even if some agricultural products have no advantages in export, China can develop products with comparative advantages. Chen Xiwen believes that, in a sense, agriculture is not afraid of even some shocks. The problem is-
Supporting reforms should be "urgently marched"
Generally speaking, the impact of China's entry into WTO on agriculture is mainly not how many agricultural products are imported and how much the market supply and demand are affected. Most importantly, if farmers haven't had time to move, the opening of agricultural products market to the international market may affect the employment and income of a large number of farmers.
Judging from the domestic situation, the grain output has remained at 460-465 million tons for three consecutive years, which is far from the annual consumption of 30 million tons. Now, because of the stock, the grain price has not changed much.
But we can't relax the protection and improvement of agricultural production capacity just because there is no problem with China's bulk agricultural products. Especially in recent years, a large number of farmland has been occupied and the production capacity has decreased; In addition, we actively adjust the structure, and return farmland to forests to produce green food and organic food, which will reduce part of the output. In this regard, we should realistically estimate how long the existing inventory can make up for the gap between supply and demand. If the inventory consumption is almost the same, how much capacity should be maintained?
Factors other than agriculture will also increase the cost of some agriculture. China has a large number of rural laborers, and the labor price is relatively low, so it is possible to increase exports. But whether it can be exported in large quantities depends on the optimization of varieties, the progress and popularization of science and technology, the overall improvement of farmers' quality, and the costs and expenses in a series of processes before agricultural products leave China port. For example, some places set up card fees on the road, and raising the export quarantine inspection fees of agricultural products will reduce their competitiveness.
For another example, China can mainly export agricultural special products. Will increasing agricultural specialty tax reduce its competitiveness? Worth considering. In the past, people wanted to tax our products, but if we failed to collect them ourselves, our competitiveness would be reduced. In short, we should never burden ourselves with products that may be competitive.
Joining the WTO is a chess game that has just begun.
Its impact on agriculture in China has just begun, and it is still our attitude to observe calmly, respond positively and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages.